Anatomy Of A Stumble
The unprecedented popularity of my recent “Cold Comfort” post was all down to StumbleUpon. For three days, I was in seventh heaven as more and more friendly Stumblers helped my page hits escalate into the thousands — and then along came a reviewer who stopped my party in its tracks.
I’ve written before about the “StumbleUpon Effect”, back in July 2007, when I noticed an increase of several hundred page hits because one of my posts was Stumbled by a handful of Stumblers. Now it’s happened again — in spades. Over the past few days, I’ve watched with mounting excitement as my Cold Comfort post racked up several thousand hits — in fact, by midnight Monday it was around 22,000 since about 5pm Saturday afternoon. This kind of thumbs-up Stumble activity on my little blog is something I’ve never experienced before and left me rather breathless. This time, however — unlike the previous occasion — I’ve also experienced what it feels like to get the thumbs-down treatment too.
Regular readers of my blog will know that I’m passionately interested in climate change — the subject dominates my posts. I usually manage around 150 page hits on days when I publish posts. On most other, non-posting, days I languish around the 50 to 60 mark. When I came across a humorous story in Private Eye magazine concerning a man in Austria who was battered on the bum by hailstones shooting out of his toilet — together with mention of freak weather conditions that led the temperature to plunge from 35 degrees centigrade to zero within a few hours, and as a result severe hail storms battered parts of the country, I decided it was material suitable for inclusion in my blog. While being light-hearted, it also highlighted one of the serious aspects of climate change we might all have to cope with in the event of rapid climate cooling: violent storms with accompanying deluges of giant hailstones.
I transcribed the item from the magazine, and while doing so I wondered if anyone else had written about it online. A quick Google search turned up several brief references to the story, including one on another blog that had accompanying pictures which, as Private Eye only had a cartoon, I used to illustrate my own post. I published it on Friday 26th September. Late in the day, Lainiep93 — an online friend of mine — gave it its first Stumble. This then allowed me to Stumble it too (I can’t be the first to Stumble my own posts, as the StumbleUpon system bars me from doing so — but I can Stumble my own posts once someone else has started the ball rolling).
The stats for my web site (provided by GoStats) show that on Thursday, my site had 60 page hits. On Friday — publication and first Stumble day — my site attracted 235 page hits. Saturday’s hit-count was 4,944. On Sunday, things really started popping, with 7,090 page hits being accumulated by the end of the day, and a big increase in hit frequency showing up at around 3pm to 4pm — the reason being that during Saturday and Sunday, more and more Stumblers had given the item the “thumbs-up” (fifty at the current count). These have not been “reviews” as such — only three have taken the time to actually write something about the post, that’s lainiep93, me, and a third reviewer whom I’ll get to in a moment — it was just Stumblers using the “I like it!” button. Once it reached a “critical mass” of Stumblers passing it on to their friends via the thumbs-up and the StumbleUpon system putting it in front of random readers via the Stumble! button, the view-rate went through the roof. There had been 12,034 page hits throughout Saturday and Sunday.
Monday began as a great day — by 1pm, I’d added a further 7,577 hits, with GoStats estimating 13,966 for the whole day. I was on target for about 26,000 total hits from Saturday up to the end of Monday. I was ecstatic — and then, during the afternoon, my hit-rate slumped, dropping from about 650 in the previous hour to around 100. (You can see the drop in the graph on the right — that sheer brick wall at the 4pm junction.) I believe the reason was empress737700, a Stumbler who gave my post a “thumbs down” and reviewed it thus: GEE, another one that was taken from somewhere else. Jesus Christ people, lets try for some original content, please? This story is bullshit anyway.
The time stamp for Empress’s review is September 29th, 12:31pm. As far as I can ascertain, StumbleUpon’s time stamps use UTC time, the equivalent of GMT — but my stats are logged in BST (i.e. GMT+1 hour), so in my local time this would have been just after 1:30 on Monday afternoon. By the time the StumbleUpon system had processed her thumbs-down and down-rated my post, the effect was being seen in my stats by 4pm BST — 3pm UTC/GMT. (OK — I honestly can’t say whether any other Stumblers had also given it a thumbs-down because, as far as I can see, this info is not provided by StumbleUpon on the review page unless the thumbs-downers also actively review the site in question; so I feel I should qualify what I’ve said by adding that the available evidence points to just this one thumbs-down being the culprit.)
I felt rather deflated. Aside from the fact that Empress had spoiled my stats fun by raining on my parade with her thumbs-down — which obviously had a very negative effect within the StumbleUpon system by drastically lowering the “rating” of my post, reducing the frequency at which it was being randomly placed in front of other Stumblers when they used the “Stumble!” button on their toolbars, and costing me about 3,500 potential hits in the process — she had also completely missed the point of my post. True, it wasn’t original material (how much stuff on the web these days really is original?), but I felt it nonetheless added value to my blog because of the way it highlighted one of the very real consequences of climate change, that of the violent storms it will bring. But of course, Empress didn’t read it in context, just in isolation. She’d obviously come across the same information presented on several other sites, had become bored by the repetition of it — and didn’t believe a word of it anyway. That’s her prerogative — but her single thumbs-down all-but killed my limited opportunity to get my little blog containing what I believe is relevant climate change news in front of a wider audience, so I hope she’ll forgive my chagrin!
Today, it looks like this particular example of the StumbleUpon Effect is wearing off. At this time of writing (mid-afternoon Tuesday), there have been about 670 page hits, with an estimate of around 1,000 for today — still amazingly high for me, but nothing like the heady rush of the past few days, which has seen me achieve more hits in the last 72 hours (22,344) than my blog managed to attract from when I started it in March 2007 to December 2007 (13,581), and more than the whole of 2008 up until a few days ago (13,021). For a little blog like mine, the effect has been nothing short of miraculous and shows what can be achieved via StumbleUpon with the right kind of material — in my case, it would appear that I’m more likely to reach more people with humorous items than I am with my serious posts! It also, however, demonstrates the savage negative effect of a single thumbs-down Stumble. It’s a power that should be wielded wisely — and, perhaps, only after considering the item in question in its context whenever possible.
Concerning The Responses My “Cold Comfort” Post Has Received So Far
I’ve mailed Empress asking her to point me to the information that convinces her the original story is bullshit, as I’d be happy to write it up and post it. [UPDATE 03 Oct 08: She's been kind enough to send a reply, which is included in my follow-up post, The Truth Behind 'Cold Comfort'.] Paul Martin commented directly on my post, saying I cry bullshit…..total……idiots (which hardly merited a considered response from me), while qwerty said I’m calling bullshit, the sewer and storm water are separate systems, and why would there be hail stones? why would they be round? (I provided him with an answer.) BenThere then ventured an opinion that This is totally shopped. (Meaning the photos were created using PhotoShop.) I can tell by the pixels and because I have seen many shops in my time. I disputed this, once again asking for more detailed information about what leads him to this conclusion — and so far, surprise surprise, there’s been no reply.
Though I’d be happy to publish anything concrete proving that the basis of the story is untrue, I’m afraid people simply crying “bullshit” and dismissing the story out of hand doesn’t wash with me. I’ll have more to say about this in my next post.
UPDATE 03 Oct 08: Read The Truth Behind ‘Cold Comfort’ for the follow-up post.
Estragon says:
September 30th, 2008
3:44 pm
I would have to agree with empress737700 on this. It would add merit to your blog if you had taken the time to interpret or add something to the story, but simply quoting other sources is just lazy. I don’t want to attack you personally, but it is frustrating how much of the internet is just the regurgitation of someone else. ‘Everyone else does it’ is not a valid excuse, and the only way to improve the quality of the internet is by actively doing so, not just reciting after some one else. For example, I found this article to actually be very interesting, so bravo!
gcgal says:
September 30th, 2008
4:08 pm
I feel dismayed that people will just cry ‘bullshit’ and not back things up with something worthy of discussion. Never mind. I enjoyed this, it’s interesting to see how StumbleUpon works. Good going with it, sorry to hear that it went down again though.
Somerset Bob says:
September 30th, 2008
4:27 pm
Estragon — thanks for taking the time to comment, and thanks for the “bravo”. It’s much appreciated.
I agree with you about regurgitation. I find when when writing my blog items, particularly my climate change posts, it’s tempting to simply cut and paste long blocks from whatever source material I come across — principally because the subject is a complex one, I’m a layman, and there’s always a risk that by paraphrasing what the climatologists, scientists and correspondents have already said or written, I might inadvertently misinterpret the material, which I do not wish to do.
However, having said that, I do spend a good deal of time digesting the material and then re-writing and rearranging it, principally with the aim of using it to illustrate my conviction that we’re moving swiftly towards a scenario in which our climate will cool suddenly and drastically.
I tried to “flag” the seriousness hidden within the “hailstones up the toilet” item by preceding it with a paragraph of my own: What sort of consequences will we have to endure if, as I suspect, our weather starts to turn really cold in the near future? Perhaps I didn’t make it obvious enough for non-regular readers of my blog, who would not immediately know where I was coming from.
As the item I then used from Private Eye wasn’t, as far as I could ascertain, repeated verbatim anywhere else on the web (it differs in a number of ways from the original Austrian Times report, which I’m going to discuss in my next blog post, and contains more information than most of the other brief mentions the story got on other blogs), I felt it could stand on its own without my re-writing it. It was also, in its Private Eye version written by Victor Lewis-Smith, a really funny read that I felt would only suffer if I tried to re-work it. (I also wouldn’t want to be accused of plagiarism. I felt I was being naughty enough by copying it without seeking Private Eye’s permission.) Hence it being filed under “Humour” as well as “Climate Change” in my Categories system.
It’s hard to write about climate change without quoting from other sources. The evidential research has to come from somewhere, and I therefore have to rely on the work being published by climatologists and authoritative reporting sources such the BBC to provide the information that I can use to highlight what I believe to be coming our way in the near future: while almost everyone is talking about global warming, I’m flagging up the possibility of a sudden, dramatic cooling, particularly affecting the northern hemisphere. I don’t claim this as my own idea — read my previous Climate Change posts and you’ll see that Whitley Strieber’s work in this area is my principal inspiration. As this proposition receives nowhere near as much publicity as global warming, I’m doing what I can in my own way to get it “out there”.
Somerset Bob says:
September 30th, 2008
4:46 pm
Hi gcgal — yes, it seems it’s the easy way out for many these days, isn’t it, to spend a few seconds reading an item, dismissing it in an instant and moving on without using the old grey matter to actually think about the ramifications of what’s under discussion. An example of how the overwhelming amount of information available via the internet — a confusing mixture of reliable, doubtful and completely made-up information — is contributing to shortening people’s attention spans? Maybe. Again, I’ll have more to say about this in my next post.
It was inevitable that the hit count would drop eventually when the StumbleUpon Effect wore off, even without a thumbs-down. It probably didn’t have much longer to run in any case — but for a little blogger like me, even another 24 hours like Sunday or Monday would have provided valuable additional exposure to a new audience.
Thanks for taking the time to comment
Qelqoth says:
October 1st, 2008
2:34 am
First of all, Empress737700 is perfectly entitled to rate you negatively on bookmarking websites such as StumbleUpon and for that matter, so is anyone. But every time someone does, are you going to bawl like a sissy and write posts about how it’s affecting your traffic? Or are you going to act upon the negative critique in a positive manner by contributing original content to the blogosphere?
Your argument is as such: “True, it wasn’t original material (how much stuff on the web these days really is original?)” Personally, I beg to differ. It doesn’t matter whether you are an SEO weblogger, a humorous diarist or providing reviews for a select crowd: if your content isn’t original, people will eventually have something bad to say about it. Whining doesn’t change that one iota.
If you are able to provide me with a link to this negative review, I could probably see where Empress737700 was being unfair towards you and your content. However, both myself and Empress737700 share a variety of similar interests and if she’s thumbed someone down, it’s probably because she doesn’t like it.
So how does this impact you? Oh, you lose out on a few thousand web hits? Oh what a bore. Listen – if you’re not providing original content, then why are you throwing a fit about how one negative review is creating a “savage negative effect” on your page?
Oh, the Google AdSense, amirite? Too bad. My NoScript blocked that bitch. Besides, this entire page is getting thumbed down. Why? Because I don’t want you to continue having aneurysms whenever someone has an opinion you don’t agree with. That’s like playground mentality. Instead, I want you to grow a spine and be a MAN.
Oh yeah – one more thing. There is plenty of original content on the web and I, for one, provide a metric mother load of it. Also, I thumb every one of my posts down, leave myself negative reviews, regardless of the “savage negative effect” it will have on my page and you know what? My Google Pagerank and Alexa Ranking still pisses all over yours.
So stop your whining and produce original content. QED.
Somerset Bob says:
October 1st, 2008
8:56 am
Qelqoth — thanks for your comment. As it’s quite long, I’ll respond to it bit by bit.
First of all, Empress737700 is perfectly entitled to rate you negatively on bookmarking websites such as StumbleUpon and for that matter, so is anyone.
Agreed. Of course she is. Of course they are. I never said or implied otherwise. If that’s what you’ve inferred from what I wrote, then you’re mistaken.
But every time someone does, are you going to bawl like a sissy and write posts about how it’s affecting your traffic?
No. Not every time. Just when it interests me. I wrote about it on this occasion because it was the first time any post of mine had elicited such a huge response on StumbleUpon followed by a sudden drop in popularity and, being interested in how the StumbleUpon system works and what might have caused such a sudden drop, I analysed what went on. I wouldn’t describe such an analysis as “bawling like a sissy.”
Or are you going to act upon the negative critique in a positive manner by contributing original content to the blogosphere?
Your argument is as such: “True, it wasn’t original material (how much stuff on the web these days really is original?)” Personally, I beg to differ. It doesn’t matter whether you are an SEO weblogger, a humorous diarist or providing reviews for a select crowd: if your content isn’t original, people will eventually have something bad to say about it. Whining doesn’t change that one iota.
I believe I’ve addressed these points in the reply I gave to Estragon.
If you are able to provide me with a link to this negative review, I could probably see where Empress737700 was being unfair towards you and your content. However, both myself and Empress737700 share a variety of similar interests and if she’s thumbed someone down, it’s probably because she doesn’t like it.
The link was provided in paragraph 4, on the word “Stumble” — but here it is again for you: http://www.stumbleupon.com/url/www.bobkingsley.co.uk/blog%3Fp%3D193. To save people the trouble of actually visiting the review page I reproduced Empress’s review, in full, and in green to make it stand out, in my post: GEE, another one that was taken from somewhere else. Jesus Christ people, lets try for some original content, please? This story is bullshit anyway. I never at any point said that her review was unfair. If that’s what you’ve inferred from what I wrote, then once again you’re mistaken. I also included what I thought were her reasons for giving it the thumbs-down — She’d obviously come across the same information presented on several other sites, had become bored by the repetition of it — and didn’t believe a word of it anyway. That’s her prerogative. — This corresponds pretty much with what you’ve suggested.
So how does this impact you? Oh, you lose out on a few thousand web hits? Oh what a bore.
Might be boring to you, but it’s not to me. When my average daily hit-rate is around 60 to 100, losing a few thousand during a rare StumbleRush — because of the effect of one negative Stumble — made quite an impression on me. It seems to me, on analysis, that one negative Stumble has a disproportionately large effect when compared to the number of positive Stumbles required to give an item a “critial mass” of popularity. I think I’m entitled to write about the things that positively and adversely affect traffic to my blog, here, in the very blog that’s affected by them.
Listen – if you’re not providing original content, then why are you throwing a fit about how one negative review is creating a “savage negative effect” on your page?
I believe I’ve addressed the question of how original the content was, compared to other versions of the story already published on the web, in my reply to Estragon. I take it that by asking why are you throwing a fit you actually mean “why are you writing about” how one negative review created a savage negative effect on my page, and the answer is obvious: because that’s the phenomenon that caught my eye. The sudden — at that point unexplained — drop of around 700 hits from one hour to the next warranted closer examination.
Oh, the Google AdSense, amirite? Too bad. My NoScript blocked that bitch.
Not at all. The impact on the ad strips — and any consequent impact on my current earnings from them, which hovers around the zero mark (the most I’ve ever made is 60 cents) — never entered my head. But you’re right — it probably should have done. Thanks for reminding me.
Besides, this entire page is getting thumbed down.
As you are perfectly entitled to do.
Why? Because I don’t want you to continue having aneurysms whenever someone has an opinion you don’t agree with.
It’s very kind of you to be concerned for my welfare, but I can assure you my blood pressure is normal, so there’s no need to worry on that score. And just to reiterate: my post did not concern itself with whether I agreed or disagreed with someone else’s (i.e. Empress’s) opinion, or whether or not I thought they had a right to express it. It was concerned with the effect that one negative Stumble — for whatever reason it was given — had on my site’s hit rate. That’s all.
That’s like playground mentality. Instead, I want you to grow a spine and be a MAN.
Son, I left the playground over forty years ago. Childish jibes about what makes a man a man are wasted on me.
Oh yeah – one more thing. There is plenty of original content on the web and I, for one, provide a metric mother load of it. Also, I thumb every one of my posts down, leave myself negative reviews, regardless of the “savage negative effect” it will have on my page and you know what? My Google Pagerank and Alexa Ranking still pisses all over yours.
I can’t imagine why anyone would want to do such a damaging thing to their own posts. Perhaps it’s a sort of psychological indication of how much they really don’t like themselves.
Ah well. Your adolescent willy-waving at the end of your comment indicates just who, out of the two of us, is shackled with a playground mentality.
Thanks for dropping by anyway. It was fun.
Qelqoth says:
October 1st, 2008
10:28 am
You just don’t get it, do you?
First of all, I really don’t care whether your content is original or not. I’m used to seeing banal tripe on the Internet anyway. I mean, we could argue about it if you want….but that’s not why I’m here.
The point is this; Empress737700 (along with others) left you negative reviews and you responded (whether you agree or not) in a manner akin to a spoilt brat urinating down his pants in a hissy fit.
And then you have the audacity to call me childish? Jesus H Christ – all my content is purile and childish. So thanks for stating the obvious, moron. Anyhow, I’m just dishing out my opinion here. I could honestly care less about you, your website or its “content”.
As for me hating myself, far from it. I just find it amusing to leave myself negative reviews. I wonder what that’s called? Oh, that’s right – it’s called not having my head shoved up my own arse and obsessing over thousands of web hits. You know, like some people do.
To reiterate, I was browsing my friend’s StumbleUpon page, saw her review of this post and as a result, discovered someone who throws a little tantrum whenever someone leaves him a negative review.
To me, that is pathetic and hilarious simultaneously. As for me whipping my weiner around at the end of my comment, wtg invoking the alpha male syndrome.
But since you were kind enough to bring such a failed argument into play, please allow me to negate your opinion: at least some of us have balls.
GFY, ESAD.
Somerset Bob says:
October 1st, 2008
11:13 am
Qelqoth — it seems I’m banging my head against a brick wall with you. People reading your diatribes here, together with my reasoned replies, will have to make up their own minds as to who, out of the two of us, has handled this correspondence more sensibly.
Now then — your behaviour exhibits all the attributes of what’s called, in polite circles, a Troll, so I’ll let you air that last little pointless hissy fit — but I’m bored with you now, so I’ll be baited no more. I’ve better things to do, such as attempting to shove my head up my own arse. Frankly I think it’s an anatomical impossibilty, but it’ll be preferable to wasting time debating with the likes of you.
Cheerio.
Marcy says:
October 1st, 2008
4:24 pm
Qelqoth, I am absolutely incensed. Who in God’s name do you think you are addressing my husband in your unreasonable manner? He writes what he believes in — some things quoted, some not. Anything wrong with that? I don’t think so. You and Empress, whether you agree or disagree — and yes, you’re entitled to your opinions — but I think you both need to learn how to address people in the correct manner whether verbally or in writing. And that goes for anyone else as well.
But there again, you two and a couple of others are only but a few to be so rude. Many others enjoyed the read.
Bye.
Somerset Bob says:
October 2nd, 2008
8:19 am
Thank you, my sweet
I’ve also been taken a little aback by the vitriol unleashed in some responses to my post — completely ignoring what it was actually discussing and instead aiming attacks at me personally, as if I’d attacked them or their friends personally.
The item was about StumbleUpon and how it works — it was categorically not about what I might have thought about the merits of Empress’s opinion, nor did I question her right to express it through a thumbs-down.
In writing I felt rather deflated, I was merely referring to how I felt when I saw the hit-count dropping — not to how Empress’s written review had made me feel.
In writing Aside from the fact that Empress had spoiled my stats fun by raining on my parade with her thumbs-down, this rhetoric was not intended to convey a feeling of personal enmity toward Empress — it was a way of describing, in informal terms, how the sudden drop in hit-count had affected my elated mood at the time. Whatever others may think of the merits (or otherwise) of me being interested in my own hit-count, the fact is: I am interested; one moment I was enjoying the rare thrill of watching the stats climb as ever-more people visited my page, the next I was concerned about and confused by what caused the sudden slow-down. I determined it was Empress’s thumbs-down after the fact, by looking at the stats log data and then comparing it to the time stamp on Empress’s review. The examination of one led to the discovery of the other. Having identified through analysis that a single thumbs-down appears to have a disproportionately strong effect when compared to the weak effect of a single thumbs-up, I felt this was worth writing about for the benefit of others who might be interested in such things.
In writing she had also completely missed the point of my post, this was merely stating the fact of the matter as I saw it. It was not intended to suggest Empress was in any way lacking in intelligence for having missed the point. In adding But of course, Empress didn’t read it in context, just in isolation, this was intended not as a snide comment about a lack of insight on her part, but in migitation — that is to say, I wanted to convey that I understood that it was not her fault for missing the point.
In writing her single thumbs-down all-but killed my limited opportunity to get my little blog containing what I believe is relevant climate change news in front of a wider audience, so I hope she’ll forgive my chagrin, I was, once again, stating the simple fact of the matter as I saw it. In case this has been misunderstood: in using the word chagrin, I did not mean anger. The intention was to convey my distress of mind at the time.
I’ll probably be harangued again now, for having had another whine. But hey — this is my blog. That’s what it’s for.